Jen Purdie
Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Sustainability, University of Otago
Dr Jen Purdie is a climatologist and energy researcher with 30 years’ experience looking at climate impacts on natural and built environments. Jen works as a senior research fellow at the University of Otago.
Her PhD was in seasonal climate forecasting, and she spent 12 years in the energy industry looking at better optimisation of wind, water, and snow melt in energy forecasting on all time scales, and modelling the future New Zealand energy system out to mid-century.
Recent research includes projected changes to wind and water in coming decades and the impact of this on renewable energy generation (funded by the Deep South Science Challenge). Another project looks at energy implications of avoiding carbon lock-in in the built environment (funded by MBIE Smart Ideas fund).
Jen provides consulting services on climate and energy issues, with clients ranging from industry to government. This has included reports on climate change impacts on rivers and for proposed wind farms, and the projected impact of climate change on probable maximum flood, for resource consenting purposes. Jen has been an expert witness in environment court cases around access to water, and lectured at University on this and other topics.
Applying climate knowledge in the energy industry to tackle climate and water challenges
Risks and opportunities for climate-reliant industries trying to adapt to Climate Change include the obvious physical risks, such as changes to wind, water and sun, and increasing extreme weather and sea level rise, but also the costs involved with mitigating and adapting to climate change.
We live in a time of super-computers, high-resolution data, and artificial intelligence, producing high-resolution climate forecasts. Climate-reliant industries are also now highly quantitative, with complex planning models requiring forecasts of wind, water and sun as inputs. Knowledge of extremes and an understanding of uncertainty in model projections is vital when using these climate forecasts to plan operations or long term infrastructure build. Forecasts need to be in a format and at a resolution that fits with the “downstream” planning models, and at a cost where return on investment can be realised.
Using the energy system as an example, this presentation will explore these ideas and show climate change projections applied in a 30 year ahead electricity system model as an example. Wind and water are projected to change over New Zealand at the same time as huge increases in electricity demand are projected due to decarbonisation via electrification. Changes to the seasonal and daily shape of electricity demand are expected with heating and ventilation load changes, irrigation load changes, and EV charging. These combined impacts have been modelled and results will be discussed.
All these changes are now being quantitatively applied in most electricity system models in New Zealand, with significant planning implications.